Coverage

Robust Start Driven by Global Markets

"In 1Q26 EQUITA posted total net revenues of EUR 25M, c. 10% higher than our EUR 22.6M forecast. Global Markets stood at EUR 15.1M, down -4% yoy, though 11% better than our estimates with a robust EUR 7.4M contribution from Client Driven Trading & Market Making (up by 88% yoy vs. EUR 3.9M recorded in 1Q25 and EUR 3.8M average contribution in the first quarter over the last 21-25 period); Investment Banking reached EUR 7.3M, 11% above our estimates (up 35% yoy) driven by robust DCM and Debt advisory activity, positive ECM, and broadly stable M&A; and AAM was at EUR 2.7M, slightly higher than our EUR 2.5M forecast (up 14% yoy). Operating costs were higher than expected, driven by business expansion and non-recurring consulting expenses (EUR 0.5M), leading to a slightly weaker cost/income ratio. The capital position remains solid, with IFR stable at 3.1x, broadly in line with year-end levels."

Q1 results: best Q1 since IPO, without leaning on Directional Trading

"EQUITA delivered a strong Q1, with revenues of EUR25.0m (+7% YOY, c.15% above our estimate), marking the best first quarter since IPO. The key positive is the quality of the beat, in which, unlike Q1 25, when the upside was largely driven by volatile Directional Trading, this quarter was driven by client-related revenues."

"The main source of outperformance was Client-Driven Trading & Market Making, which came in at EUR7.4m vs our EUR4.9m estimate, explaining almost the entire group-level beat. Investment Banking also beat expectations, with revenues of EUR7.2m (+33% YOY, c.16% above our estimate), and management indicated that even excluding the consolidation of EQUITA Debt Advisory, organic growth would have been above 20% YOY."

"Net profit was EUR4.6m (-2% YOY, c.7% above our estimate), while adjusted net profit excluding c.EUR0.5m of Iccrea/Xenonrelated advisory costs reached EUR5.0m (+6% YOY)."