Coverage

2H Positive Outlook Confirmed after Strong Half-Year Results

"EQUITA Group posted a strong 1H'25, with net profit and revenues surpassing our estimates, driven by solid growth in Global Markets. Management confirmed that the performance so far has been strong across all business units, and based on these results, expects to propose a higher dividend than last year."

"EQUITA's management is optimistic about the second half of 2025, expecting strong performance in Global Markets, supported by solid trading volumes and a favourable environment for Investment Banking, particularly in Debt Capital Markets (DCM) and Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A). In alternative asset management, however, fundraising challenges persist, and revised targets have been set for their funds. Given the solid results in the first half of 2025 and a positive outlook for the second half of the year, we raise our group revenue and net profit estimates for 2025-27E by an average of ~3%"

High volatility, higher profits

"EQUITA reported strong Q2 results, with revenues at €30.7m (+30% YOY),c.4% ahead of estimates, driven by Global Markets and resilient Investment Banking. Net profit rose to €7.5m (+43% YOY), c.12% above expectations,supported by strong operating leverage and lower non-personnel costs."

"Global Markets stood out again, with revenues up 50% YOY to €16.7m, led by Client Driven Trading (+56% YOY) and Directional Trading (+138% YOY). Sales & Trading missed slightly, but still had notable growth. IB delivered €11.8m (ahead of KECH €11.0m) despite a muted ECM backdrop. AAM was broadly in line at €2.3m, though fundraising visibility remains cautious."

"We raise our FY 2025-27E revenue and net profit estimates by c.2.5- 3.0% and c.4-5% respectively, led by strong Global Markets momentum. DPS remains unchanged at €0.38 for FY 2025E. With the estimate upgrade and model rollover, we increase our TP from €5.0 to €5.3 and maintain our HOLD rating. EQUITA remains attractive for income-focused investors with a c.8% dividend yield for FY 2026E."