Coverage

Earnings’ Upgrade on Strong 1H

"EQUITA delivered strong 2Q26, with net profit beating our estimates by c. 26%, driven by outstanding Global Markets’ performance, while Investment Banking remained resilient and AAM was impacted by a one-off portfolio writedown. Management reiterated a constructive outlook for FY26, supported by strong client activity, a solid advisory pipeline and upcoming strategic initiatives. We raise our 2026E revenue and adj. EPS estimates by 3% and 6%, respectively, while management expressed confidence in maintaining a stable DPS at around EUR 0.4/share."

The bar has already moved higher

"Following a very strong Q2, and while we wait for Iccrea and Xenon closing, we materially raise our estimates, mainly reflecting a much higher Global Markets revenue base. H1 revenues reached EUR60.2m (+11% YOY) and net profit EUR13.0m (+7% YOY), the best half since IPO, with Q2 Global Markets revenues c.47% above our estimate as all three sub-lines beat simultaneously.

We now forecast FY 2026E Global Markets revenues of EUR65.9m (prev. EUR48.7m). We partly offset this through lower IB estimates, cutting revenues to EUR40m (from EUR45.0m), and AAM, in which we incorporate the EUR1.9m H1 investment loss and remove c.EUR3m of carry/co-investment assumptions. We raise FY 2026-28E net profit by 6%/2%/2%, while keeping DPS broadly unchanged. We think the timing is now right to move from Hold to Buy.

Q2 materially raises the standalone earnings base, while our new estimates still assume a clear H2 normalisation. At the same time, Iccrea and Xenon are now closer to completion, reducing execution risk and bringing the strategic upside nearer. We raise our TP from EUR6.20 to EUR6.70 and upgrade from Hold to Buy."