Coverage

From Transition to Best Year Yet

"EQUITA delivered a strong 3Q25 performance, with the net profit margin rising to 22.5%, thanks to a strong increase in revenues. The Global Markets and Investment Banking segments outperformed expectations, with solid contributions from trading and M&A."

"Management maintains a positive outlook for 2025, expecting a strong performance across all business units, with net profit for 9M'25 already surpassing full-year 2024 results. The Board plans to propose a dividend increase above €0.35/sh. We raise our 2025-27E revenue estimates by an average of +8%, driven primarily by Global Markets and AAM. Our new 2025E net profit estimate is lifted to €22.7m, which would mark the highest in the company’s history. We bump up our 2025E DPS to €0.39 (from €0.37), assuming that management could likely propose to set aside some reserves from this year’s strong results for potential strategic investments in the future."

Q3 results: another record quarter

"EQUITA reported a strong Q3, well ahead of our expectations across all divisions. Revenues reached €28.6m (+93% YOY, +38% vs KECH), mainly driven by Global Markets and Investment Banking, with significant operating leverage pushing net profit c.65% above estimates."

"By segment, Global Markets generated €13.3m (+53% YOY, +32% vs KECH), supported by broad-based strength across S&T (€5.6m vs €5.2m KECH), Client Driven (€6.1m vs €3.9m KECH), and Directional Trading (€1.6m vs €1.0m KECH). Investment Banking delivered €12.2m (+177% YOY), c.53% above expectations, while Alternative Asset Management reported €3.0m (+58% YOY), c.12% above forecasts."

"Following these record results, we have revised our FY 2025-27E estimates upward by c.4-6%, reflecting stronger momentum across all divisions, mainly in Global Markets. Incorporating the higher earnings outlook and a lower cost of equity (from 11% to 10%), we raise our TP to €6.00 (from €5.30) and maintain our Hold rating."